Trading For Yield - Swing Trading System
A simple mean reversion system based on US treasury yields that that shows a win rate of over 75% and a profit factor over 3 in historical simulations.
US treasury yields are probably the most important cog in the entire global financial system. They affect the level of interest rates within the economy and so impact organisations and businesses at every level.
Because of this, US treasury yields often act as leading indicators and can be utilised to great effect by discretionary and systematic traders.
In this PDF report, we present an interesting mean reversion strategy that looks at US treasury yields (specifically five year and ten year yields) in order to trade a watch list of five purposely selected ETFs.
The result is a system that shows a win rate of over 75% and a profit factor over 3 in historical simulations.
Not only that, but this system made money every year we tested between 2007 and 2017!
Based on a sample of 236 trades over 10 years of historical data this system has two other significant factors in its favour.
First, the system is based on a concept that makes sound economic sense.
Second, the system operates in an area that very few people are looking at.
Both of these two factors lend extra credibility and robustness to the model and increase its chances of success.
Enroll in Trading For Yield today to receive:
- A complete trading strategy based on an economic rationale
- Full rules, method and back-test results
- Fully disclosed trading system source code (Amibroker)
Joe Marwood is an independent trader and investor specialising in financial market analysis and trading systems. He worked as a professional futures trader for a trading firm in London and has a passion for building mechanical trading strategies. He has been in the market since 2008 and working with Amibroker since 2011.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO INVEST REAL MONEY. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS SHOULD BE YOUR OWN. See full Risk Warning.